Did the Midterms Kill the MAGA Movement?
On Tuesday night, November 3rd, and into Wednesday morning, the United States of America hosted its 60th midterm election, deciding who controlled the House of Representatives and local Gubernatorial races— the results were not good for Republicans.
Given the historic trend of the President’s party losing the first midterm election, and the unique unpopularity of certain Trump policies like the Iran war, trade wars with Canada and the EU, and the Department of Homeland Security crackdown, me and many other critics knew that
Republicans would lose these midterms. But none of us could predict by how much:
According to the Associated Press, Democrats won 54 seats in the Senate to Republicans 44. This leaves Alaska and Mississippi uncounted and leaning slightly blue. This represents 7 to 9 Senate seats that Democrats flipped to gain the majority.
Democrats also already gained a 237-seat majority in the House of Representatives, easily
surpassing the middle line at 218. Republicans hold just 147 seats, with 51 seats still up for
grabs. This means Democrats successfully flipped 28 House seats, seemingly with more on the way:
Similar trends followed in the Governor races as well, but those dont directly impact national politics. These losses weren’t just any seats either; Republicans lost in the seats Trump most wanted them to win and seats which should have been solid red.
Look at Texas, where President Donald Trump specifically picked Texas Attorney General Kenm Paxton to run for the Senate race. After 600 million was spent by Trump allies, including roughly $170 million from Elon Musk, Paxton still lost to choir boy James Talarico.
This pattern followed from state to state, from red Texas to the purple Michigan. According to research by Steve Ratner, Trump-ally Elon Musk spent nearly half a billion dollars in this
election, and 98% of what he sent to specific candidates lost their election.
Did the Midterms Kill the MAGA Movement?
Does this really all mean that the Make America Great Again movement is dead?
Yes and no.
As we saw in these election results, the MAGA voter base is scattered. While they won in some states they turned up to vote, they were outnumbered in most and in some, didn’t even bother to show up. The high cost of living and Iran war pushed most moderate Republicans out of MAGA. And without this foundation cracks began to form higher up.
The MAGA movement trades absolute loyalty, to Trump and to the movement itself, for access to power. Without the voters that offer of power begins to evaporate and those at the middle tier of the hierarchy begin to wonder if its worth it all. Those afraid of consequences are beginning to jump ship like the rats they are.
For instance, in a now deleted clip, Fox News Host Jesse Waters openly admitted:
“The coalition’s totally collapsed, I mean, we lost whites?! Whites! You can’t
do that! If you’re a Republican. Men! Hispanics, big time! And so, it’s going to
take a while to put the coalition back together…”
As is customary for Trump, he responded on his own social media platform
TruthSocial to say:
“FoxNews bears responsibility for these losses by constantly and consistently
putting on the Dumocrat opposition, and worse. GOD BLESS AMERICA!”
Typically when Fox upsets Trump in this way, they get on their knees to grovel and kiss Trump’s boot, but this time they are standing up for themselves, signaling a sizable split in the movement.
“The [Iran] war definitely played a role” said Fox host Brian Killmeade, doubling down.
With a now lame duck presidency in which Trump is able to pass any laws or other parts of his agenda, and with long-time allies splitting off, Republicans have another problem on the
horizon…
The 2028 Problem
Republicans may think they have a 2026 problem right now, but this is just the beginning of the end— 2028 could put the last nails in the MAGA coffin.
With their new control of both the national and local governments, Democrats have the ability to redraw election maps in their favor as Trump tried to do before these elections. The map also already favors Democrats as the Senate seats available are either considered safe in Dem control or flippable to it.
Democrats who have already shifted the party left-ward with over 40 DSA and other
socialist-alligned wins, and they will also have the opportunity to primary Democrat who works with Republicans John Fetterman and others. Out of this election has come a whole array of strong Democratic Presidential candidates who now have momentum on their side.
However while the abundance of candidates for Democrats is an advantage as they seek fresh leadership, it is a disadvantage for Republicans who have shown loyalty only to Trump.
Donald Trump is 80 years old and by the 2028 elections he will be 82. Regardless of his intent, a combanation of his age, his dropping support, and of course the law will prevent him from re-election.
MAGA maintains a loyal base roughly equal to 30% of the United States voting population. With new leadership and a new coalition, they could reclaim power. The problem is that hopefuls like J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and even the likes of Tucker Carlson, aren’t Trump and can’t command the base in the same way.
The MAGA movement may not be dead, but it will never be the same again.
