Canadian Separatism is Dead in the Water
‘51st State’ rhetoric sinks hopes of Canadian separatists as Alberta decides to remain in
Canada. Québec is up next and likely to follow the same path.
Alberta Votes ‘Remain’
On October 19, 2026, the Province of Alberta hosted a ten-question referendum initiated by Alberta
Premier Danielle Smith. Question 10 was by far the most controversial, it read:
10. “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of
Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to
hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate
from Canada?”
According to Elections Canada, this referendum drew a historic 70% or 3,148,205 of
eligible Albertan voters. This represents a 10% increase in voter turnout from the 2023
referendum.
Option 1: “Alberta should remain a province of Canada.” — received 74.95% or
1,556,316 votes, winning easily.
Option 2: “The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required
under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or
not Alberta should separate from Canada.” — received just 25.05% or 520,233 votes.
This means that among those who did vote in this referendum, roughly 1 million and 72
thousand Albertan voters did not participate in question 10. This could have been
enough people to change the result of the election, and that isn’t even counting those
who didn’t vote at all.
It’s also possible that voters chose to remain a part of Canada because they feared the
United States (where I am from originally). But what is there to fear?
The U.S. Threat
On February 1st, a trade war between the United States and Canada was started. As
we reported here at Cocaine Company, tensions have only increased between the two
North American neighbors since then.
Further escalating the conflict, United States President Donald Trump and members of
his administration have discussed annexing part or all of Canada and turning it into the
51st state.
When asked by a CBC reporter if he would take military force off the table in his pursuit
to take Canada, Trump replied that military force would not be used, instead opting for
“Economic force, because Canada and the United States that would really be
something. You get rid of that artificially drawn line, and you take a look at what that
looks like, and it would also be much better for national security”
If Alberta or Québec were to leave the Federal protection of Canada, they would almost
immediately be at risk of either annexation or more direct economic pressure than they
have already been experiencing.
And this may be the plan. Leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project like Jeff Rath and
Dr. Dennis Modry have noted ties to Washington and have requested support in their
separatist vision. In return, they would offer the U.S. resources and even some new
land rights. That’s usually how it begins.
Here we see Rath going on American Network Fox News to make this exact case:
But these apparent turncoats are far from the majority. According to the Angus Reid
Institute, only 10% of Canadians want to join the United States, while as many as 25%
of Americans supported taking Canada. Perhaps that’s part of the reason separating
from Canada was so unpopular in Alberta.
But Alberta is not Québec…
Québec Up Next: Already Facing Challenges
On October 5th, Québec hosted its 44th Provincial General Election, which decided the
governing party of the province. Parti Québécois jumped from just 7 seats to 60 seats
and control of the government, making their candidate, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the
new Premier of Québec.
Part of this election success was built on a key promise from Plamondon. “The
courageous struggle of French speakers in America to preserve their cultural
differences will be vindicated when this people has its own country,” he said.
A map by World Atlas Maps shows what a new Québec state could look like.
However, to form a majority government and instantly force a referendum would require
at least 64 seats. Liberals won 39 seats, making them the official opposition
government, and Conservatives won 19 seats, while the former party, the CAQ, was
completely obliterated.
While they are just four seats short, many of their opponents will be unlikely to cross
over the divide if it means leaving Canada. In fact, that’s specifically why the Liberals
and Conservatives saw a gain of so many new supporters; these voters specifically
wanted to prevent a PQ majority.
Even supporters of the Parti Québécois are not enthusiastic about the chances of a
referendum. When I asked PQ supporters “Will Quebec leave Canada?”, first they got
angry that I was speaking in English, but then they told me:
– “No. The closest we ever got was in 95, and we had much better
chances/conditions then. Separatism is a pipe dream at the moment.”
– “After almost 400 years of family history in the province, I voted with my feet. Will
Québec ever sort itself out? Not in my lifetime…”
– “All this with the USA lingering at the border, looking for weakness, and we knowthe rest of Canada would smile and wave as they crept in, since we ditched
them.”
But some remain hopeful of a longer-term option:
– “The independence project is more popular than it was 5 years ago. Who knows
where we’ll be in 5 years.”
– “I’m pretty skeptical that Québec will actually separate in the near future, but if
the PQ performs well that might change.”
With almost no outside support, and support within the PQ too weak to even advance to
a referendum, Québec is likely to follow in Alberta’s footsteps and vote to remain.
