People assemble a drone during a Brave1 Components event in Kyiv, Ukraine, December 3, 2025. Photo by Oleksandr Klymenko/NurPhoto via Reuters
Ukraine Will Be the Business Opportunity of the Decade
Whether the war in Ukraine is truly inching toward peace remains to be seen. But whenever the fighting finally stops, the best business prospects won’t be in Russia, says RAND’s Howard Shatz they’ll be in Ukraine.
Why? Despite Russia’s 140 million people, $2.2 trillion economy, and vast natural resources, it remains politically and commercially risky. Ukraine’s outlook, on the other hand, is far brighter:
- Immediately after the war, Ukraine will become the site of the largest reconstruction project since World War II.
- Ukraine has become a global model for defense technology innovation. (Ukrainian firms are already partnering with U.S. companies to develop one-way, long-range unmanned aerial systems.)
- Ukraine is making reforms to improve its investment climate, including restructuring its banking system and passing a new public-private partnership law.
All this, Shatz says, could help Ukraine emerge from the conflict as a secure, sovereign state deeply connected to the global economy. When that happens, it will not only be a symbol of resilience. It will be the business opportunity of the decade.
PDF Reconstructing Ukraine
Howard J. Shatz, Gabrielle Tarini, Charles P. Ries, James Dobbins
By Rand.org
